23 April 1992: Yugoslavia, a Royal Message 

Don't blame the Serbs 

Pretender to the throne of Yugoslavia, tells the West, bring the warring parties together

It leaves all the Yugoslav nations, with the possible exception of Slovenia, much worse off than before, and thoroughly disillusioned. The most disillusioned are the Serbs, who have become overnight a national minority in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. 

I view the break-up of Yugoslavia with dismay, since ordinary will suffer as a result. Think only of the innocent victims of the civil war first in Croatia, and now in Bosnia-Herzegovina. 

If the western blueprint for Yugoslavia is implemented, almost three million Serbs will remain outside Serbia's borders. They face the danger of being dismembered as a nation, among successor states. It is a prospect that no nation would view with equanimity. It is also bound to produce long-term instability in the Balkans and in Europe, yet instead of showing some understanding for genuine Serb anxieties, the West now threatens Serbia with punitive measures. This is quite wrong. 

Yugoslavia was a multinational state of people from different ethnic, religious and cultural backgrounds. This was both its strength and its weakness. With the fall of communism, one hoped for a gradual, peaceful transition from communist one-party state to a parliamentary democracy, with each Yugoslav nation master in it own house. 

That was not to be, Seeing that the era of communism was drawing to an end, communist leaders of the republics started using nationalism to keep themselves in power. This was the beginning of the end for Yugoslavia. 

Ideally speaking, the restoration of monarchy would be in the interest of all the peoples of Yugoslavia, but we must be realistic: Yugoslavia as we knew it no longer exists. I believe that one day in the future a commonwealth of South Slav nations will arise from the ruins of Yugoslavia, and that a monarchy will have a useful role in it as a symbol of unity, much on the lines of the British Commonwealth. But this is very much a thing of the future. The Karageorgevitch Royal House is Serbian, and my place today is with the Serbian people. There is a strong monarchist tradition in Serbia, and I believe a restoration of the monarchy in Serbia is a strong possibility. Monarchy would give stability and provide a s symbol of unity for all Serbs, irrespective of their political affiliations. It would also strengthen democratic institutions and give a clear signal to the non-Serb nations of Yugoslavia that Serbia is ready to talk to resolve disputes in a peaceful way. 

On the question of Macedonian, I believe that it is really up to the people of Macedonia to decide their own fate. If they want independence, so be it. I shall never go against the democratically expressed will of the people. 

But is an independent Macedonian state really viable? Macedonia has a very weak economy, and no army to defend its borders. The newly independent state would be quite vulnerable, and its neighbours are not too friendly. I fear Macedonia's independence would lead to international complications. 

The internal problems of Yugoslavia have been aggravated by the actions of the EC and the US Ñ by premature recognition of the independence of Croatia and Slovenia, and now Bosnia-Herzegovina. 

I always thought that the preconditions for diplomatic recognition was that a government was in full control of its territory, but it is obvious that the Tudjman government in Croatia and the Izetbegovic administration in Bosnia-Herzegovina are not. 

One-third of Croatia is under the control of local Serbs and the federal army, while Bosnia Herzegovina is fully under the control of the federal army, which could topple Izetbegovic tomorrow if it decided to do so. 

This "independent" Bosnia is, in fact, fully at the mercy of the federal army, whose spokesman recently said it would stay in Bosnia for at least another five years. Despite this and the fact that the Serbs of Bosnia-Herzegovina opposed independence, the EC and the US hastened to grant recognition. 

If, God forbid a full scale war develops in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the West will have to bear part of the blame. 

What can hold together? Serbia and Montenegro certainly can, but it is another matter whether the proposed new federation of two republics should be called Yugoslavia. It is extremely difficult to predict future developments in the area: I think the main concern to stop the fighting and to get the warring parties to the conference table. 

Real and durable peace can be achieved only through negotiations and not through war.