“Yet Another Lease of Life for Milosevic” 

May I take this opportunity to express my gratitude to Sir David Nicholas and the Reform Club Media Group for having invited my wife and I to join you this evening in such splendid surroundings. 
The West has yet again given Mr. Milosevic and his regime a new lease of life. Thanks to the regimes total control of the Serbian media, Milosevic’s state controlled machine made a theatrical display using the airwaves with the possible NATO intervention over the tragedy in Kosovo. If he made concessions and he was aware he would have to eventually, he would have ended up as a traitor to the fever of nationalism that he kindled and nurtured over the years. He provoked NATO to threaten the air strikes and then in the last moment, he “saved” Serbia from the missiles. Yet again, the state propaganda machine portrays him as a saviour, a great peacemaker and a statesman. Milosevic then promptly closed down the remnants of the independent media that wanted to reveal his game. So Serbia remains in darkness and ignorance and the state run media is singing praise to the president. Any hope of democratic reform is on hold and that is serious. Without democracy in Serbia, Milosevic will continue to have a free hand and initiate more trouble. I would like to quote an excerpt from a New York Times editorial: “Most high level diplomats who visit Belgrade see only Milosevic and his men, which boosts his standing and sends the message that the West does not care about Serbia’s dissenters. Independent groups are not the solution to the Kosovo problem, but they maybe the start of a solution to the Milosevic problem”. 
After the collapse of the “evil empire” and the Berlin Wall. The West almost certainly thought that our communist leaders in the former Yugoslavia would be ideal to make a gradual orderly transition in implementing desperately needed democratic and economic reforms. The West overlooked that our communists had been scheming on how to remain in power in the “New World Order” that no longer drew global communist emotion. Our League of Communist leaders came up with a masterful strategy and each one them in turn used to the full extent negative nationalism and negative religion. This allowed them a new lease of life. A monk in Kosovo put it: “Religion in our time is often used for political and ideological purposes. Because of its great emotional impact, religion can help mobilise people, for good or bad”. The same goes for nationalism. 

Over the years to ensure survival and power in the “New World Order” Milosevic enlisted his family, created militias, created loyal and crafty opposition, created political parties, created fronts etc. All these elements have been hard at work in doing all kinds of things such as ethnic cleansing, creating and running mafias, closing down the media, controlling the media, gathering intelligence both domestic and foreign, poisoning and infiltrating institutions, intimidating people, stifling dissent in the universities and so on. 
You all remember the winter of 1996-1997, the demonstrations and discontent when the regime had stolen the peoples vote. Many of the demonstrators were the good citizens, students and intellectuals of Belgrade and other cities. We should not forget the hundreds of thousands of intellectuals and technicians who left in what might be called a “brain drain”. These people sought a better future and security in far away lands. In the end the great loss of the intellectual voices of reason contributed and continues to do so to Milosevic’s power base. Everyone has been let down by political intrigue and games both domestic and international. In dealing with crisis such as the demonstrations, Milosevic masterfully used the technique of having two “in” trays. The first “in” tray for urgent personal matters such as dealing with investments, properties, funds and favours. The second “in” tray is designed not to be handled urgently. Simply because the Milosevic strategy is that it will go away in time. The European Union and the United States got off the hook again thanks to the second “in” tray. There were also big demonstrations in Indonesia and the United States Secretary of State strongly demanded that the dictator relinquish power. Does this mean that there are different classification or categories of regimes in the State Department? On the other hand, is it just a question of size? Economics or that Indonesia is the largest Islamic populated country? 
There was a deal in Dayton that left Milosevic off the hook if he delivered and represented the Bosnian Serbs at the conference table. What was decided at Wright Paterson Air Force Base in Ohio was “peace in our time” just like Chamberlain coming back from Munich. The war in Bosnia ended and that was good, but it stopped there. The leaders continued to be the same bedfellows in Zagreb, Belgrade and Sarajevo and so nothing changed. Democracy stood no chance and was effectively put on hold so that President Clinton would have a feather in his cap inscribed “peace in our time”. Is the United States serious about democracy or playing another game as we have become so used to brilliantly illustrated in many excellent Hollywood movies? Surely the United States over simplified the situation in believing that it was doing good in helping effectively only one side conveniently forgetting the overall composition of Bosnia and the joint responsibility of the scheming leaders in Belgrade, Zagreb and Sarajevo in having created the horror in the first place. 
We are inundated with the news about Iraq and Serbia running in tandem. How about a well put together exertion to resolve the leadership in Baghdad, Belgrade etc? And, to get on with it for once and all so that the people cease suffering in isolation under dictatorships and sanctions that ultimately only benefit and strengthen the dictators. Sanctions only hurt the people who are powerless and victims.  It is as if the United States and it allies need the Saddam Hussein’s and Slobodan Milosevic’s to justify alliances, ordinance and to ultimately ignore the misery of the people. I think the people of Serbia and Montenegro deserve dignity and a future in democracy minus all the games and pawns between the Western powers and indeed between Moscow and the West. The Serbian and Montenegrin people have suffered a great deal from a negative Western media who in part never understood the techniques and conniving methods used by the regime in Belgrade to assure power and continuity. 
I wish to expand a little more on why the horrors of the Wars of Yugoslav Succession took place. We should take a hard look at the leaders of the former Yugoslavia. The politicians in the West blissfully thought that our leaders from the League of Communists in the post Tito period would be capable of implementing democratic and economic reforms. Tito was considered a hero to many in the West and very obliging as a communist when in fact he was more oppressive than many of his fellow communist leaders. When Tito broke away from Moscow he had no option owing to the sphere of influence that Yugoslavia found itself in. The West would not accept Soviet access to warm water and Moscow would not accept Western dominance over Yugoslavia. This situation only benefited Tito personally, but it also made him a hero in the eyes of bystanders. He ruled with total power by creating division within the only party The League of Communists. The horrors of the Second War and the Civil War of Yugoslavia were conveniently forgotten. The post war years of Tito’s Marxist dictatorship are also remote today. The West was taken in over the decades by Tito’s form of dictatorship. Visitors were wined and dinned in palatial splendour and thus the misguided belief that the League of Communists were capable to produce fine leaders who care about people. To be fair I have met many former members of the League of Communists who wanted no part of the fantasy, but only desired a job to survive and I respect them. Over the last few years, there have been some strides for democracy in parts of the former Yugoslavia and I applaud this. However, the horror is that other leaders of the former Yugoslavia turned a blind eye on their own citizens failing to recognise them as equals regardless of ethnic origin or religion. Human rights simply do not exist or exist simply on paper. To recognise everyone as equals would have been against the leaders and their regimes survival code. The result as you well know is that everyone suffered Orthodox, Roman Catholic, Muslim, Jew and many more. They lost their lives, they were maimed, they were ethnically cleansed, they were tortured and they became refugees. 
There were millions of mixed marriages throughout the former Yugoslavia and it is well known that the Bosnian Muslims, the Bosnian Serbs and the Bosnian Croats lived in Bosnia together in peace for centuries. Quite apart from the fact that under the communist dictatorship of Tito -- that the West often encouraged by omission -- not many people in Yugoslavia lived in peace, the proposition is correct only if we telescope historic events. Orthodox, Roman Catholics, Muslims and others lived together in a state that was substantially different, a region that was part of a greater country in which all nationalities were assured, at least on paper equal standing. Regrettably as I mentioned, Tito created the six republics and the two autonomous regions (in the Kingdom of Yugoslavia there were administrative Banovinas with different lines). The West recognised these republics as international entities without taking into account their constituent populations and the crossing of borders of the constituent populations. Slovenia was easy -- one ethnic group and one religion -- but the difficult ones were Croatia and particularly, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia's independence was a substantially new development, and one that challenged the existence of Bosnian Muslims, Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats in that region. There is no doubt that the communities did, could and should have lived together. I myself have always appealed to those in power and the media on numerous occasions for toleration and co-operation, and have denounced violence repeatedly. The tragedy is that decades of Tito’s personalised dictatorship deprived people of this fundamental feeling, that no amount of violence is justified in pursuing political ends. 

It the mid eighties many strategists and I predicted that there would be civil war in what was then Yugoslavia. I spent much time talking with politicians and institutes in many capitals trying to avert bloodshed. I am sad that we had to witness the largest scale humanitarian disaster Europe has seen since the Second World War.  My wife, Princess Katherine, can tell you first hand about the terrible humanitarian pain and misery and about the relief, she has valiantly given through her charitable work regardless of religion or ethnic origin. 
If the regime leaders had been different and had received sound coaching supplemented by calculated carrots, the tragedy would have been averted. Why did the West not have a prepared modern type Marshal Plan? On the other hand, why was the West not equally firm with all the leaders of the former Yugoslavia? There were no saints or angels. The leaders did not have far to go in our history in firing up and using negative nationalism and negative religion. Remember the ability to use the state-controlled media as a superlative instrument to inspire hatred and drum up nationalism in living colour thanks to a modern television system and not to forget radio. 
There were two empires in our region in recent history they remained for hundreds of years, the Ottoman Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. These two Empires left legacies and departed late in modern historical terms. After their demise, the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes simply did not have the luxury or time to consolidate democratic institutions. It was my grandfather who changed the name of the country to Kingdom of Yugoslavia in 1929. Yugoslavia means South Slavs. The brief interval between the two World Wars saw the rise of fascism, the Great Depression, then the onset of the Second War coupled with the Civil War in Yugoslavia. At the end of the war there followed close to five decades of communism, and finally the last ten horrific years. All these negative events proved to be disastrous for the people of the former Yugoslavia and neighbours. In the end, drummed up hatred got the upper hand. We are witnessing today after decades “on hold” the beginning of the end of medieval history in South Eastern Europe and the regimes taking full advantage of this fact. 
Under Milosevic’s rule the people have paid a heavy toll after 10 miserable years of what started from a speech in Kosovo inflaming the use of negative nationalism and religion. He has been in part responsible for the dismemberment of former Yugoslavia, the start of the war in Slovenia, then Croatia, then Bosnia, and now in the Kosovo region. There is no doubt that he has benefited along with his co-workers who are still the leaders of Croatia and Bosnia. These leaders have used and continue to do so the same techniques and methods to remain in power. The West has fallen for all of the dirty tricks and provided simplified solutions that have only given further leases of life to the regimes. I am convinced that should one of the regimes topple. There would be a domino effect heralding in a new era of democracy in South Eastern Europe bringing hope for the people and future generations to mend their lives. Will the West really rejoice and approve of democracy in the region? A few days ago, an historian at Belgrade’s Institute of Serbian Studies put it. “Since the international community has accepted the realities of Milosevic being in power and even though it blames him for everything that happened, they always, and this is the third time they’ve done the same thing, accept Milosevic as the main and only partner to negotiate some kind of solution. I do not really understand how you can find a solution. Reach an acceptable compromise with someone you consider most responsible for the crisis”. The historian’s point is valid. Until Serbia is at peace with itself there will be no lasting peace in the region. 
Many people ask me what does the situation in former Yugoslavia have to do with the United States or the European Union. My answer is that the region is an integral part of Europe and important link in the European brotherhood of nations. Belgrade is only a few minutes away from London by plane. Various large immigrations over the decades and their descendants from the region populate the United States. Western democracies do have a moral responsibility to champion human rights and democratic principles not only at home but also throughout the world. It is thanks to fine journalists like yourselves that we are able to read about and enjoy the fruits of democracy. At the dawn of a new century the Western democracies cannot be selfish and watch others rot and suffer under modern dictatorships. It is vital that the West dutifully defends democratic principles and human rights, and come to the rescue of those who suffer. 
As journalists, you are well aware of the abundance of elections in Serbia over the last ten years. What is the point of having elections when the people have been fed a load of attuned material, with the sole advantage of ensuring perpetual continuity for the regime? I do not recommend anymore instant elections until there is freedom of the media and basic human rights. I think as journalists you will sympathise in what I have said. People have the right to know, partake in politics and deserve respect. As part of a plan, there must be a “cooling off period” allowing fundamental reforms like those undertaken in Spain after the Spanish dictatorship of Franco. The King appointed Suarez as the interim Spanish Prime Minister who in turn implemented initiatory reforms and only thereafter, elections took place. Spain has valiantly moved ahead and I believe we can do the same providing the regime does not enjoy any more Western gifts of further leases of life. Ambassador Holbrooke take note, but after all, he is only following policy! 
Finally, the tragedy and pain is far from over. Milosevic will need some more nationalism to ensure his power base and he might ignite one or more of several areas. I am thinking particularly of Vojvodina. On the other hand, Montenegro or even on the side Macedonia. There is simply no shortage of hot spots. 
Thank you for your attention. It will pleasure to answer your questions.